Mac Wit Da Cheese

2y

They got themselves a bonafide hit

Ava

2y

This confirms it’s locked for a best picture nomination

The surprise of the year tbh

Trailers make it look so washed out so I wonder if it just is that strong everywhere else

Ava

2y

This confirms it’s locked for a best picture nomination

The surprise of the year tbh

Trailers make it look so washed out so I wonder if it just is that strong everywhere else

Ava

2y

This confirms it’s locked for a best picture nomination

The surprise of the year tbh

Trailers make it look so washed out so I wonder if it just is that strong everywhere else

Kr0niic

2y

wait. this wasnt supposed to be good

Jonboi

2y

I think it being a BP nom has more to do with how weak the crop of awards contenders were this year...
I got what I expected out of it. Occasionally fun. Occasionally hollow.

ANTI

2y

This hasn't been a bad year and this isn't going to be a fringe BP nominee. It's going to get nominated for a lot, it's going to win some.

Mac Wit Da Cheese

2y

What do you suspect the BP noms will be this year? There’s usually 10 right?

ANTI

2y

Anora
The Brutalist
Conclave
Wicked

are locks.

Dune Part Two
Sing Sing

are near locks.

As far as the other 4 nominations

I'd predict:

Emilia Perez
Nickel Boys
The Substance
A Real Pain

but that's mainly based on where everything stands now. Emilia Perez is getting destroyed by casual audiences and can easily drop off, The Substance has insane momentum right now but who knows if it can carry it for another 2+ months, and the other two are complete toss-ups. Nickel Boys is supposed to be incredible but who knows if enough people are gonna care.

ANTI

2y

Anora
The Brutalist
Conclave
Wicked

are locks.

Dune Part Two
Sing Sing

are near locks.

As far as the other 4 nominations

I'd predict:

Emilia Perez
Nickel Boys
The Substance
A Real Pain

but that's mainly based on where everything stands now. Emilia Perez is getting destroyed by casual audiences and can easily drop off, The Substance has insane momentum right now but who knows if it can carry it for another 2+ months, and the other two are complete toss-ups. Nickel Boys is supposed to be incredible but who knows if enough people are gonna care.

Fruit Fury

2y

Dune part 2 has to be a guaranteed nominee or else this s*** doesn’t matter

ANTI

2y

This hasn't been a bad year and this isn't going to be a fringe BP nominee. It's going to get nominated for a lot, it's going to win some.

Mac Wit Da Cheese

2y

Good guesses. I’ve also seen Gladiator 2, The Piano Lesson, Juror no2, Queer listed as possibles but it depends on how things play out

It looks like Anora will easily run away with it regardless

Fruit Fury

2y

Dune part 2 has to be a guaranteed nominee or else this s*** doesn’t matter

Jonboi

2y

It's a bad year for awards contenders. Gold Derby has Gladiator 2 as the 9th most likely nominee. In another year, movies like Sing Sing and A Real Pain would be ignored. In another year, The Substance (A horror movie) would not even be a possibility. This feels more like the 2020 lineup than last year's lineup. There's just not a deep bench that they're considering.

But, that’s probably a good thing if it means less Oscar bait, and room for movies like Anora.

ANTI

2y

I very much disagree. 2023 is always going to stand as an anomaly for multiple reasons, among them being that by the end of July we basically already knew half the field and by the time we got to this point in the year, there was very little that was unknown to us.

Things will undoubtedly narrow down in the next few months, but roughly half of the field is a complete mystery.

Sing Sing was at one point considered the BP frontrunner, it wasn't pushed back to this year because they were afraid it wouldn't get nominated last year, they did so because they strongly believed it could win in any other year. (A24 f***ed the distribution up big time however and now it's absolutely not going to win now.)

Also, Gold Derby is frequently out of date.

Babaláwo

2y

Dune Sweep or we crash out

Jonboi

2y

Maybe my opinion will change when I actually see movies like The Brutalist, and Conclave, and Emilia Perez.

Do you think Challengers would have had a shot if it simply released later in the year or was that always destined to be too cool for the Oscars?

ANTI

2y

Hard to say, how late are we talking? I honestly think it released at a pretty perfect time. It was the movie of the moment for what felt like a solid month. If you drop it in the middle of awards season, it almost certainly doesn’t get that same moment or hype, even with an actual campaign attached to it. Dropping it later for a SLIGHTLY better awards chance and not getting that moment? I really don’t think it’d be worth it.

I know I said what I said in a previous post, but for what it’s worth, I don’t think Challengers is completely dead. It has to leapfrog at least 5 movies that I think have a better chance of getting the nom, but if certain movies start to drop off and fade away… that list can get shorter and shorter… and stranger things have certainly happened.

ANTI

2y

Queer and The Piano Lesson were popular picks prior to festival szn but after people saw them they dropped off lists pretty quickly.

Neither is going to get nominated but at this point I genuinely think out of Luca's movies, Challengers has a higher chance than Queer to get nominated, and no one would've said that just a few months ago (still hoping Craig gets a nom tho)

Gladiator 2 is probably just hanging on to like an 11-15 spot. A Complete Unknown, September 5, and Sacred Fig are also hanging around there probably.

CRACKASTEPPAVEGAN

2y

Damn, people weren't f***ing with piano and queer?