Party registration this year does not equal who they voted for tho

Early votes shouldn’t be focused on too hard but they do give an idea of the electorate. And they paint a very different picture than the polls have suggested. Polls show Trump leading by 2 points. Polls also show that 40% of Trump voters are waiting for Election Day compared to 15% of Biden supporters doing the same, so it’s expected that Trump picks up more votes on Election Day while Biden should lead in early voting.

But even early voting, which should benefit Biden, has republicans leading democrats and independents combined by 6 points. Biden would have to be flipping 10% of republicans on top of losing no democrats and grabbing every single independent to win Texas at this rate

Yeah, but both parties are pretty firmly behind their candidates. Trump’s approval among republicans sits at 95% (30% better than on Election Day 2016), while among democrats he sits at 3% (10 points lower among democrats than he was on Inauguration Day).

Trump is the only president in history to get more votes in an uncontested primary than in his initial run. Most see their votes drop in half, Trumps increased by 30%. Dude got 18 million votes in a primary where he had no real competition; Obama 2012 got 5 million and Bush 2004 got 7 million. Trump clearly has enthusiasm from the Republican base and it’s unlikely he loses a significant number of republicans. Likewise, unlikely he picks up a significant number of democrats.

I’m just saying, Texas is in the bag at this point for Trump.

Why is obama running around with biden in michigan today if hes up +12 (according to cnn) in that state?

Probably smart to not repeat the same mistake Hillary made and skip over states that are critical to your success, I wouldn’t look at that as a bad sign for Biden necessarily

Yeah, but this suggests that the polling average showing Trump with a 2 point lead is way off. Likely because polls underestimated Republican enthusiasm for Trump.

If the polls were more accurate in that 40% of Trump voters are waiting for Election Day vs 15% of Biden voters, and Trump already leads Biden by around 6%, then Trump would end up winning with a double digit victory.

Wisconsin early votes:

GOP - 43
DEM - 35
Independents- 22

Michigan early votes:

GOP - 41
DEM - 39
Independents - 20

Pennsylvania

GOP - 23
DEM - 67
Independents- 10

Early voting shows good signs in Wisconsin and Michigan for Trump, but terrible signs in Pennsylvania. Which becomes extra interesting because the polls are the other way around, polls have Pennsylvania being the least safe for Biden

You are making way, way too many assumptions based on surveys and early voting, especially when 11% of early voters so far are not party affiliated. We don't know how they will break.

Texas is not in the bag for anyone.

Right leaning RealClearPolitics just updated their no toss up map again

Biden 356-182

The numbers I just wrote out were assuming independents went entirely for Biden

A lot of cali people
Are moving to Texas cities and their suburbs

The people who move into Florida are retired people and Latinos (who happen to be more conservative)

Losing the democrats strong hold of your state isn’t a smart idea

yes it is

Okay, so genuine question - based on early polling polling data, it looks like if trump was to win the election (again, that’s a big if) then it would have been near solely because of a rise in support from hispanic and black voters (namely hispanic) vs 2016. Generous estimates give a 30-45% hispanic polling for Trump (28% in 2016) and black voting for trump is expected to be at least double of what it was in 2016 (8% then for reference). Of course, polling is not always correct and on top of that this makes the assumption he did somehow win, whereas he clearly is not favored to statistically. Still, what do people think about this? If he wins because of minority voters what would that say about modern party policies and voter bases moving forward?

Both parties would probably start fighting harder to earn black votes, not just promising things and not following throug

i think the rising hispanic GOP support is more interesting since "hispanic demographic change" has been such a big talking point for both the GOP & DNC over the last few years, with GOP typically assuming it would be a negative. A rabidly pro-hispanic GOP (not just cubans but wider hispanic inclusion) would honestly be hilarious. It could actually ironically end with inclusions of even more social conservatism into the GOP platform as older hispanics and hispanic adult men (statistically) tend to lean more toward socially conservative views. Of course, all it would take would be the GOP to revert to their "FREE MARKET PRO-WAR PRO-BANK" bs to tumble all of this overnight, so I wouldn't be too certain of them maintaining that lol

I know it’s possible but they might be hatching their bets in the wrong state

They NEED PA over Texas any day

my guess is they lose texas as a whole but they win urban cities in texas more than they did in 2016. someone else in this thread had a point that a lot of people from the coasts moving into texas will effect voting, but only in the cities they're moving to (i.e. Austin) which are already disproportionately blue. the hispanic vote in texas is split enough that it doesn't necessarily wholly help them. PA is really a toss up state. Even if you drive through PA you'll see almost as many Biden signs in areas as you will Trump signs. It could genuinely go either way.

pennsylvania numbers aren’t necessarily bad for trump. If the 50% dem vbm polls were accurate, PA is gonna be super close with these numbers

betting markets being better than nearly every model is still so interesting to me

lmk where i can get my polibet$ in

A+ tier iowa poll shows a massive increase for Trump. Hoping this is just an outlier and this isn't 2016 again

there’s a lot but im not really involved in it. I just look at the averages lol. Predictit and betfair are the ones i hear about the most

Haven’t seen any other state trending bad for Biden. Can’t make assumptions off of only 1 state poll.

Does seltzer only do Iowa?