Aug 31, 2023
Sep 10, 2023·edited·3 repliesI was just looking at the 2024 polls and realized something pretty nuts
At this point in 2020, Biden had a 12 point lead over Trump. The closest that gap ever got was a 3 point lead for Biden in early 2020. It widened back to an 11 point lead in July of 2020, and the polls ultimately landed on a 7 point lead - the actuals came in with 4.5 point win for Biden.
At this point in 2016, Clinton had a 19 point lead over Trump. That closed up as the Democratic primary heated up and as it became clear Trump was an actual force in the primary. But by the times both candidates were clearly going to be the nominees, Clinton had gotten back to a 12 point lead. There was still a good bit of widening and closing of the gap over the rest of the campaign - the final polls landed at Clinton with a 3% lead - the actuals were 2% for a Clinton win (popular vote).
Right now in the polls Biden has a 0.4% lead. The biggest gaps so far have been a 3 point lead for Trump at one point, and a 3 point lead for Biden at one point.
All this to say - polls these far out aren’t known for being super reliable, but the gaps are normally a lot more extreme at this point. I think it’s a pretty bad sign for Biden that, as an incumbent, he’s polling so closely to Trump.
Sep 10, 2023Theory· editedI was just looking at the 2024 polls and realized something pretty nuts
At this point in 2020, Biden had a 12 point lead over Trump. The closest that gap ever got was a 3 point lead for Biden in early 2020. It widened back to an 11 point lead in July of 2020, and the polls ultimately landed on a 7 point lead - the actuals came in with 4.5 point win for Biden.
At this point in 2016, Clinton had a 19 point lead over Trump. That closed up as the Democratic primary heated up and as it became clear Trump was an actual force in the primary. But by the times both candidates were clearly going to be the nominees, Clinton had gotten back to a 12 point lead. There was still a good bit of widening and closing of the gap over the rest of the campaign - the final polls landed at Clinton with a 3% lead - the actuals were 2% for a Clinton win (popular vote).
Right now in the polls Biden has a 0.4% lead. The biggest gaps so far have been a 3 point lead for Trump at one point, and a 3 point lead for Biden at one point.
All this to say - polls these far out aren’t known for being super reliable, but the gaps are normally a lot more extreme at this point. I think it’s a pretty bad sign for Biden that, as an incumbent, he’s polling so closely to Trump.
I would caution hesitance with comparing this with those other recent races, given that both of the candidates have been presidents at one point (which hasn’t happened since Cleveland at the end of the 1800s), so the general public is extremely familiar with them and their politics at this point. They were also last elections matchup.
Sep 11, 2023TheoryI was just looking at the 2024 polls and realized something pretty nuts
At this point in 2020, Biden had a 12 point lead over Trump. The closest that gap ever got was a 3 point lead for Biden in early 2020. It widened back to an 11 point lead in July of 2020, and the polls ultimately landed on a 7 point lead - the actuals came in with 4.5 point win for Biden.
At this point in 2016, Clinton had a 19 point lead over Trump. That closed up as the Democratic primary heated up and as it became clear Trump was an actual force in the primary. But by the times both candidates were clearly going to be the nominees, Clinton had gotten back to a 12 point lead. There was still a good bit of widening and closing of the gap over the rest of the campaign - the final polls landed at Clinton with a 3% lead - the actuals were 2% for a Clinton win (popular vote).
Right now in the polls Biden has a 0.4% lead. The biggest gaps so far have been a 3 point lead for Trump at one point, and a 3 point lead for Biden at one point.
All this to say - polls these far out aren’t known for being super reliable, but the gaps are normally a lot more extreme at this point. I think it’s a pretty bad sign for Biden that, as an incumbent, he’s polling so closely to Trump.
Aside from the economy and other issues.. Biden can barely maintain a presidential image. That goes a long way and it's no surprise why his poll numbers are horrendous. Three-fourths of adults say he is too old. The mainstream media is even putting out stories on a Biden replacement. And the fact that Kamala Harris isn't the person people look to next shows how horrible she has been marketing herself as presidential material. The majority don't want Biden or Trump.
Sep 11, 2023·1 replyTheoryI was just looking at the 2024 polls and realized something pretty nuts
At this point in 2020, Biden had a 12 point lead over Trump. The closest that gap ever got was a 3 point lead for Biden in early 2020. It widened back to an 11 point lead in July of 2020, and the polls ultimately landed on a 7 point lead - the actuals came in with 4.5 point win for Biden.
At this point in 2016, Clinton had a 19 point lead over Trump. That closed up as the Democratic primary heated up and as it became clear Trump was an actual force in the primary. But by the times both candidates were clearly going to be the nominees, Clinton had gotten back to a 12 point lead. There was still a good bit of widening and closing of the gap over the rest of the campaign - the final polls landed at Clinton with a 3% lead - the actuals were 2% for a Clinton win (popular vote).
Right now in the polls Biden has a 0.4% lead. The biggest gaps so far have been a 3 point lead for Trump at one point, and a 3 point lead for Biden at one point.
All this to say - polls these far out aren’t known for being super reliable, but the gaps are normally a lot more extreme at this point. I think it’s a pretty bad sign for Biden that, as an incumbent, he’s polling so closely to Trump.
Here come Michelle Obama
- Sep 13, 2023Jayson
Here come Michelle Obama
She would have such an easy W in a match against Trump
Sep 15, 2023UAW on strike
Sep 21, 2023·1 replyThe eldest boy won in real life
- Sep 21, 2023https://twitter.com/BBCBreaking/status/1704848217483981276K DOG 99
The eldest boy won in real life
- Sep 25, 2023
Cat man raided
Sep 26, 2023·1 reply
Sep 26, 2023·1 reply
- Sep 26, 2023sniper
Bobby Shmurda voice Trump’s known to get busy with dem Glocks
- Sep 26, 2023·1 replyhttps://twitter.com/bnonews/status/1706720496937562271Lou
We all win if Dems and GOP try to outdo each other to see who can be the most “pro-union” party. I pray it will happen.
I also pray for the death of the most anti union Supreme Court of the last century
- Sep 26, 2023
Trump ordered to shut down his organization within 10 days
- Sep 26, 2023Young D
We all win if Dems and GOP try to outdo each other to see who can be the most “pro-union” party. I pray it will happen.
I also pray for the death of the most anti union Supreme Court of the last century
lmao
- Sep 29, 2023·4 replies
Dianne Feinstein has finally died. As a California native my whole life, I can say
It’s about damn time!
- Sep 29, 2023
Cannot wait to get a true progressive in there as our second senator
- Sep 29, 2023
Also this is fantastic news for Biden being able to get as many judges confirmed as possible before the 24 election
Sep 29, 2023I mean like RIP but this could ultimately be so so good
- Sep 29, 2023Young D
Dianne Feinstein has finally died. As a California native my whole life, I can say
It’s about damn time!
- Sep 29, 2023
Right wing twitter and left wing twitter coming together on this for different reasons
Sep 29, 2023·2 repliesbeing in office until you’re literally on your deathbed is just so baffling and insane lol. what is wrong with these brain rotten american politicians man.
Sep 29, 2023
Hope she's looking up at us from somewhere comfy
