i'm legit surprised dababy is in this since people said he fell off

It depends. The Weeknd has that lead due to the success of Blinding Lights and After Hours/The Highlights but he's gotten most of the points he'll get out of those releases already. Dawn FM didn't smash as well as he expected and if his next album doesn't replicate the success of Blinding Lights, his momentum will slow down.

Taylor doesn't have a ton of Hot 100 success anymore but she's still the strongest force on the Billboard 200. If she keeps pumping out albums that perform well throughout the decade, she'll easily overtake the Weeknd.

Morgan Wallen is someone I only see getting more successful as time goes on. The fact that he's #3 so far this decade proves what the power of one massive era can accomplish and that era didn't even have any major Hot 100 singles. His current era does, so he's definitely ending the decade in the top 5. Very likely top 3.

Weeknd will fall off by 2029. he has too many casual listeners. Taylor will have released 3 more multi-platinum albums by 2029.

only because he was huge in 2020/2021. his falloff might be the biggest of all time though.

Bro Taylor is #2 and she hasn't even begun touring yet. It's going to be her unfortunately

Good point Drake probably wasn't high until 2014 after NWTS. And Post Malone didn't start charting until 2015 and he was in the top 10 competing with Drake and Taylor by 2019. It's way too early to call when someone unknown could easily jump to the top

Taylor will be #1 after this tour. Then she still has 1989 to drop which would be her most anticipated re-recording after Red so that's gonna be huge.

Speak Now will also do well but probably not as well as new albums which she's likely to release 2 or 3 before 2030's end.

She isn't slowing down as a songwriter and she isn't afraid to change up her sound so I see her coming out on top when it's all said and done

Abel is being hard carried rn by Blinding Lights but it won't be able to carry forever

Abel currently has two songs in the top 5 of the Hot 100, neither are Blinding Lights

good a***ysis but i kinda disagree with your points regarding Morgan only being top 3-5 at the end. i think actually he has the highest chance of finishing at #1 out of all the contenders right now because:

1. he's already not far behind the weeknd in terms of points, and by having 2 albums in the top10 he'd be earning as much points as the weeknd and taylor each day, if not gaining on them already.. therefore by his 3rd or 4th release he'd be pulling ahead big time each week. (but then again, as he discography expands, his listeners would be spread out between each albums, therefore probably cant take up residency in the top ten anymore. we'll have to see)

2. unlike the other 2 artists above him who might not be successful all the way till 2029, his future safe as fk cus of how loyal the country base is. weeknd's casual listeners could drop him any moment (he certainly wont give get era as big as AH every time he releases) and taylor, well theres no guarantee she could replicate as much success as she approaches 40.

but, if taylor can have successful eras for even just the next 4-5 years then she'd got it in the bag. the size & gross of her tour is so absurdly huge that she'd earn 1M-1.5M points from this one tour alone, overtaking the weeknd in august; and one thing we know about touring powers is that it continues to grow even if an artist commercial success starts to wane. so she has quite an edge over the others.

her Hot100 prowess arent as bad as we thought either. 'anti hero' surpassed 'easy on me' and 'driver license' as the song spending most weeks in the top 10 by a female artist, and that song is honestly unfriendly to casual listeners.

a jam for her stans, sure. but it probably shouldnt be pulling that kind of numbers, so the fact it is still gettin 3M streams on spotify showed her either stanbase has really grown that big or casual listeners are cool with her singles again. either way her folk albums and re-recordings probably made her singles power look weaker than it is.

what abel's numbers will be like for his next era is so uncertain that it's turning into such an interesting subject lol . i dont think anyone can tell for sure honestly.

team taylor

idk why ppl think taylor has to rely on re-recordings for more success lol. her latest album, as dull as it was, still pulled such crazy numbers that it showed she's just as popular, if not more popular than her '1989' self. for that reason i think it'd be stupid business-wise to not follow up with another brand new album, only this time, work on those melodies and beats. that album can easily outdo her current one.

It’s less that she has to rely on them and more the fact that she has such guaranteed consistency and billboard presence without even having to cook up new music

So it’s like she’s likely gonna have 2 new albums. And then on top of that she still has another 4 re-recordings to drop with one of them being her most accessible and well received album by the general public.

So she’s coming down on billboard with at least 5 more projects this decade and there probably arent other artists who are gonna be able to match that production

I’d strongly disagree. In that top 10, Weeknd has one of the most cult like fanbases

Durk, Roddy, Dababy will fall off the list

Drake

everyone 1-9 has a chance sans Post.

Dua has a chance as well. Sza Lil nas x maybe too. rest are irrelevant in terms of artist of decade.