mjpplus

2y

I see it a little closer but this isn't impossible.

Like 286-252 Harris

The thing about the polling right now is that right wing polls are flooding the data, so I feel like Turmp seems to be over performing in that aspect. Plus I've even seen some of these polls not account for urban voters as much. It's odd.

On the reverse all of the polls are within the margin of error so this could easily swing Turmp's way.

I definitely see a scenario where she loses Michigan (due to the Arab American vote against her) but picks up NC while maintaining the rest of the swing states Biden won in 2020 by a slight margin.

I think it's going to be close in a sense of the margins she's going to win in each state, not necessarily the electoral count.

I see like a 271-267 map at worst and 319-219 at best for her.

For Trump I think his ceiling is 286-252

pussy bacon

2y

Why do you think his ceiling is 286-252

BigSkinny

2y

Looking at the early voting in PA and Georgia it seems like those are wins for her.

If their election calculus showed significant bleeding within Michigan and the country as a whole from the Arabic community, I think her platform would change a bit on the issue. It’s just not a pressing enough issue to the broadband electorate. Not saying she won’t change some actions from this administration if she’s in office.

mjpplus

2y

I don't think he can really gain in much support. He isn't going to be able to turn any Dems to his side, all he has is a bleeding Republican base that have more people voting for Kamala than Dems voting for him. All he can really turn out is his base and independents.

People know who he is by now and they know whether they like him or not. Anyone in the middle is really only going to be won over by economic policies and those have been laid out.

pussy bacon

2y

That's not necessarily true, he's overperforming in minority voter groups and improving across the board compared to 2020 when got around 12% of the black vote and 32% of the latino vote. He'll absolutely improve upon these numbers and become the best performing republican candidate with minorities since the 80s.

This is pretty disastrous for Kamala who's mixed race herself, and I think as we get closer to election day and this gets clearer it will send pretty alarming signals for potential voters

Trump is seemingly leading in every single swing state right now, and Republicans are massively overperforming relative to Democrats in early voting. If things continue as they stand there is no way he can lose.

But of course you can never know for certain with polls but unless something drastic happens, the dems improve early voting or election day turnout is disastrous for republicans alternatively great for democrats, we'll know who wins on election day, and it probably won't be close

mjpplus

2y

That's a good point. But I still don't feel like it could be enough. Realistically, I don't see this being a blowout either way. Trump is also kind of having to change up who he's appealing to because since 2020, the amount of while voters with no college degree in the electorate has decreased by 2%. So it feels like he's trying to make that 2% up in minority voters.

Also looking back at the last mid term election, yes turn out is smaller but it still was not good for the Republicans. Polls were showing that a "red wave" was coming and the dems would lose total control of congress, but almost the opposite happened.

The Democrats lost the House by 2 seats and maintained their majority in the Senate. I don't know if polling methods have been adjusted by much in the last 2 years to where we won't have an error like that again this year.

As far as early voting goes, Republicans are out performing Democrats in Florida and I think NC (going to have to double check). PA is the opposite of that as well as Georgia.

We could look back on this in 2 weeks and both be completely wrong though. Who knows.

pussy bacon

2y

Sure, that's gonna hurt Trump but I don't think it's gonna have a large enough impact in the swing states to offset his gains within other groups of voters

My point about early voting is that republicans are overperforming relative to democrats. They might not be getting more votes numerically, but it's usually a foregone conclusion that democrats get more early votes. The fact that it's even close is disastrous for democrats. Of course, last election was a bit different due to covid, and maybe more people in general are voting early, republicans have also been pushing people to get out and vote early so that could explain part of the discrepancy. But if Trump/republican turnout on election day is even close to what it usually is, the race is over

But we're still 2 weeks from the election which is a lifetime in poltiics, and anything could happen

Santiago

2y

Fwiw those early voting numbers are only looking at registrations. I don’t think the number of republicans not voting for trump will be insignificant

mjpplus

2y

Here’s the Latino men push

Jbreezyondeck

2y

What’s the vibes. I stay on Twitter which is heavily screwed to Trump these days so I feel like it’s not an accurate reflection of the entire country, especially with a relatively small user base

snowboyrari

2y

least important election ever

Unity

2y

?

snowboyrari

2y

inconsequential