Olivear

6y

This caucus really a weird ass one lol. This only my first real one following i was 15 in the 2016 one and was only observing casually

So like has there ever been a scenario were all 4 could win? This is insane

I definitely dnt see bernie dipping below 2nd place because of his solid base that’s the only thing im certain about

We can say that warren will be somewhere from 4th to 2nd same with biden and I don’t seen pete dipping below 3rd place

Klobuchars number really f***ing things up

She’s got about 9% in rcp avg,

Let’s say 4 go to biden, 3 to pete and 1 or two in warren that’s a lot

But also yang and tulsi got a combined avg of Around 6% as well

I definitely think bernie will weather the klob realignment if he’s closer to the high 20s and biden/pete are in the high teens and low 20s but if it’s closer i dnt See how bernie can win

Delagate wise atleast

Warren also has a solid base of mid to high teens as well but she wnt benefit from the realignment since her second choice are with pete and bernie who will probably be viable everywhere

krishna bound

6y

I don't think he'll win by any means, but I have a small feeling Yang is going to vastly over-perform vs his predictions

Cudderwalks

6y

slight relief

At

6y

60

krishna bound

6y

Iowa is less than 1% of total delegates so it's more a predictor of early momentum and ideologically where people's interests lay.
I still have my """conspiratorial""" thoughts on closed caucus-style voting but that's neither here nor there.
One thing to keep in mind is the more tertiary tier candidates that drop out, almost certainly the more this helps Biden (and also Warren to a degree). For example, Klobuchar and Buttigieg dropping out would skyrocket Biden. I don't see Buttigieg staying in the entire race unless he shocks early-on, and I think Klobuchar will likely drop out soon unless she picks up delegates here or in NH (which I think is unlikely). I think Klobuchar will endorse Warren but then her voters will split with Biden and her. Bloomberg is just in to mess with the DNC rules essentially so I don't think he's dropping out even though that would help Biden for sure, and I think of course Warren will stay in longer term. But even knowing that, Buttigieg and Klobuchar dropping out causing Biden and Warren to pick up their followers is a massive detriment to everyone else in the race, Sanders especially, who basically has his own coalition who doesn't overlap nearly as much with others currently running. The more people who drop out, the harder it gets on Sanders for sure, who already needs as much help as he can get in states outside the rust belt, west coast, and especially north east which I've seen some polls indicate is split between him and Warren.

Cudderwalks

6y

67 now

Olivear

6y

I agree but my man theres one thing lmaoo

Yr conflating buttigieg and amys early state support to nationally

Mike bloomberg and tom steyer regular outpoll both nationally

Buttigieg and amys constituency is literally based solely in NH and Iowa, pete is at like 7% nationally amy even less

Those are marginal numbers in a scenario where sanders is supercharged in a nh and iowa double win

The only impact they could hv is in two first states so bernie really really lucked out cus neither will drop before New Hampshire

Buttigieg is at 0 w black and latinos what is he dropping gonna do in nevada, SC, cali or texas 😂😂 Any is even worse

Warren on the other hand does have a constituency past those two states

She’s in the mid teens in Super Tuesday states so honestly past bernie and biden she’s the only one with any impact or chance to expand if were being honest

And seeing how it’s unlikely it is she’ll win both iowa and NH, pending her eventual dropout that’ll only bolster bernie seeing how he’s overwhelmingly her people’s second choice

Steyer is also really high in nevada and sc so he has some impact as well. His demographic seems to be an even split between low info progressive voters and biden voters so who knows but in SC atleast he’s cutting heavy into bidens lead so i think they lean moderate

Synopsis

6y

like if they are satellite caucuses aren't they really small

Cudderwalks

6y

It’s a satellite caucus for Des Moines at a college obviously heavily favoring Bernie but good to see early support

Synopsis

6y

i just hate this whole realignment s***

krishna bound

6y

Isn't Buttigieg at 10-13% and Klobuchar at like 4-6% nationally? That's still a lot, it's not like the Biden-Sanders gap is that wide where even 4% isn't a massive change. You're right though on everything else

Lou

6y

I’m not gonna stress myself out. I’ll wait a few hours for the final results

mentallo

6y

I’ve had issues with Ro Khanna but you love to see it. Probably wasn’t that hard tho

mentallo

6y

I’ve had issues with Ro Khanna but you love to see it. Probably wasn’t that hard tho